The Guardian columnist Stephen Marche warns that former President Donald Trump could still end up president in 2024, even if he loses the popular vote, the electoral college, and all of his legal cases. This could happen through a process called a contingent election.
A contingent election is held when no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes. In this case, the House of Representatives would elect the president, with each state delegation having a single vote. The Senate would elect the vice president, also with each state delegation having a single vote.
There have been two contingent elections in US history, in 1825 and 1837. In both cases, the winner of the contingent election was not the candidate who received the most popular votes or electoral votes.
Marche notes that the possibility of a contingent election in 2024 is quite real. The Electoral College is an arcane system, and there have been several cases of faithless electors who voted for a different candidate than they were pledged to.
If enough Electoral College votes are uncounted or uncertified, it could trigger a contingent election. This would virtually guarantee a Republican victory and a Trump presidency.
Marche concludes by saying that the real danger of 2024 is not even the possibility of a Trump presidency. It is that the electoral system could produce an outcome that is not credible to anybody. This could lead to a loss of faith in the democratic process and could even be the end of American democracy.
My own thoughts
I find Marche’s warning to be very concerning. The possibility of a president being elected without winning the popular vote or the electoral college is a serious threat to American democracy.
It is important to note that the Electoral College is not required by the Constitution. It was created as a compromise between the large and small states at the time of the Constitutional Convention. However, the Electoral College has become increasingly anachronistic, and it is now time to seriously consider abolishing it.
In the meantime, we must do everything we can to ensure that the 2024 election is fair and free. This includes registering to vote, voting early, and encouraging others to vote. We must also be prepared to challenge any attempts to subvert the will of the people.
